Obama

Ten years in public office. That's all.

Two 'best selling' books.

One significant key note speech at the 2004 Democratic convention.

He's announced his candidacy.

Has he got a chance? Is America ready for a black president? Is he even qualified?

If Hillary takes it, the democrats will lose. That's guaranteed. She's so absolutely despised by the entire spectrum of the american right that even the moderate and semi-moderates who might vote for a democrat after the Shrub/Cheney fiasco would vote a straight party republican ticket if Hillary was the democrat's nominee. So, if it comes down to Obama or Hillary, I'm definately for Obama. A big unknown is preferable to certain failure in this case.

But, is America ready for a black president? How many people, from both the right and the left, would convince themselves they were doing the 'right' thing by voting against him just because of his skin? (whether or not they'd admit that to themselves is another issue) How many people, from both the right and the left, from both the suburbs and the inner cities, etc etc, how many americans would vote for him just because he's black?

It matters. It matters a lot more than his youth and relative lack of experience. (Then again, Hillary's only got a year or two on him in the senate, but still...) It shouldn't matter, but it does.

Jimmy Carter got elected president by generating enough attention in Iowa and New Hampshire in the run up to the democratic primaries. He came out of nowhere and took the first primaries by storm. Successful work with the media attention that created carried him into the White House.

However, as we saw in 2004, Dean's early successes were unsustainable, and that unfortunate 'red faced angry rant' (his own words) at his first defeat only ensured further victories weren't an option.

now, we've got a year and a half before we actually hit any primaries or caucuses. That's a long long time in politics (and, frankly, just one more blatant indication of how absolutely fucked up the american political landscape is that we've been looking for Bush's replacement for more than two years before his term ran out). Who knows what could happen, but there's an awful lot of potential for some really major changes ahead.

"Obama" meant nothing to me on its own. I gather from context he's that politician you've mentioned to me before. Does he have a first name?

Thank you.

hillary's gender isn't as big of a hinderance as the fact that she's hillary clinton.

i'd like to see Colin Powel run. I really would. but his wife won't let him, so the rumor goes, which probably means she's got something in her past or her family history that she doesn't want dug up.

now, Obama might do damn well as a vice president, and, if he got in as the Veep, then provided he plays his cards right, he could be president in a few years time. Say its Gore/Obama. If gore fucks up somehow, then Obama makes sure to distance himself from Gore. if gore gets it all right, then they make sure that Obama gets some of the credit too.

still, things could be worse. Obama could stand a chance if he got nominated. So could hillary, i suppose... assuming 90% of the republican voters got coronaries just before election day.

But imagine if Sharpton tries to run again... lord. Now there's a nightmare candidate.

He looks pretty darned black. And he also seems pretty American, what with having been born here. Far be it from Ba to add unnecessary labels, but doesn't that make him a black American? Ba doesn't recall slave ancestry as a requirement there.

Ba finds it a bit unlikely that most black (or white) voters are going to be too concerned that he's a Johnny-Come-Lately. If they're the sort to support a candidate based on race, the fact that he's got dark skin and African ancestry will likely qualify him. Those for a black president will vote for him, those opposed to the idea will vote against, and the rest will make up their minds on more important factors, such as how much they like the sound of his name, or if he has a nice smile.

yep. 'african american' is a bloody separate and distinct ethnic group from 'black living in america as an american'

funny old world.

I find it ludicrous that anyone could claim a black American was not a black American because his ancestors weren't slaves to Americans (... in the sense of working the plantation, rather than the sense of being a member of a nation forced to make economic decisions based on America's priorities...).

That made me laugh. Howard is Chthulu!